Nigel Farage has received a huge boost (Image: Getty)
Reform’s five-point jump has been confirmed by a second major poll as Nigel Farage’s party gears up for big gains in May’s local elections. Following pollster YouGov recording a jump of five to 10 points for Reform in its latest two polls, Opinium has now recorded a jump from four to nine points.
According to data released by Opinium, Reform jumped from 26 to 28%, the Greens (15%) and Tories (17%) stood still, while Labour declined by some margin (22 to 19%). This comes as Sir Keir’s Labour crashes out in London, Scotland and Wales.
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In the capital, both the Conservatives and Labour are set for big losses, with the Greens taking control of several inner London councils, while Reform looks to control three councils in outer east London.
In Wales meanwhile, Reform finds itself neck and neck with Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru, while in Scotland Reform is vying for second place with Labour behind the SNP.
My hunch is a perception of closeness between Farage and Trump – which had knocked the Reform chief’s credibility – has waned over time.
Voters could care less whether Farage invests his own money in crypto and frankly schoolboy shenanigans seem fairly insignificant when we face economic crises and illegal immigrant invasions!
As I write this from Southeast Asia, I promise readers nothing Farage says on immigration and criminal justice would seem outrageous in developed democratic Asia.
Never have I seen boat loads of plucky Indonesians trying their luck crossing the Straits. Trust me, there would be no migrant hotels waiting for them here!
Reform knows big gains are needed in the local elections to keep the momentum up. The poll dip was no doubt real but talk of Peak Farage was wildly overblown. Now, the comeback begins.
Reform has a hard road ahead given the forces against it, not least the almighty ‘blob’. But Parliament is sovereign and no court sits above it. Reform will have the tools at its disposal to disentangle the quangocracy.
For now though, all eyes will be on local elections which – lest we forget – Labour tried to ban and which only went ahead thanks to challenges from Reform.
It’s game on for May.
Nigel Farage Bags Huge Boost Ahead of Reform UK’s Local Elections Push
Nigel Farage and Reform UK are entering another important phase of their political campaign, with the party seeking to turn its strong performance in the 2026 local elections into a longer-term presence in British local government.
The headline claim that Farage has received a “huge boost” reflects the significance Reform has attached to its local election results and its efforts to build political organisation across England. However, the picture is more complicated than a simple story of uninterrupted growth. Reform has made substantial gains in councils, while more recent polling has shown its national support becoming more contested.
That combination means the party’s local government strategy could become increasingly important as Farage attempts to maintain momentum.
Reform’s local election breakthrough
The strongest evidence behind the positive assessment of Reform’s position came from the May 2026 local elections.
Reform took control of several important councils, including Essex County Council, Suffolk County Council, Havering Council and Sunderland City Council. The results represented major changes in local political control, particularly in areas that had previously been dominated by the Conservatives or Labour.
Sunderland was particularly notable because Labour had controlled the city council continuously since 1973. Reform’s victory therefore represented a significant change in the political balance of a city with a strong Labour history.
Essex was another important result. The Conservatives had controlled the county council since 2001, but Reform won 53 seats and took control.
These results gave Farage and his party something that opinion polls alone cannot provide: a network of elected councillors with responsibility for running local authorities.
That creates opportunities for Reform to demonstrate how its policies operate in practice.
From protest party to local government
Reform’s challenge now is different from the one it faced when it was primarily known as a national protest movement.
Winning seats is one thing. Running councils is another.
Local authorities are responsible for a wide range of services, including social care, waste collection, planning, roads, housing and local economic development. Councillors must therefore make decisions involving budgets, staffing and public services.
Farage himself recognised the importance of discipline after Reform’s local election gains.
Speaking to newly elected councillors in Essex, he warned them against allowing internal disputes to become public. He urged councillors to resolve disagreements privately rather than create the kind of political infighting that can damage a governing party.
That warning reflects one of the central challenges facing Reform.
A party can campaign against established political parties relatively easily. Governing requires a much more detailed approach.
Reform’s strategy for building momentum
The party has subsequently sought to use its conference and policy programme to demonstrate that it has ambitions beyond local government.
At its September 2026 conference in Birmingham, Reform published proposals for what it described as the first 100 days of a potential Reform government.
Farage said a Reform administration would declare a national emergency on its first day and focus heavily on issues including small-boat crossings and the cost of living.
Other proposals included changes to energy policy, planning and housebuilding.
Deputy leader Richard Tice announced a proposal aimed at reducing annual household energy bills by £250, while also outlining plans to make development on brownfield land easier. These remain Reform policy proposals rather than measures currently implemented by government.
The strategy is significant because it links the party’s local government campaign with its broader national message.
Reform wants voters to see its councillors as evidence that the party can administer public services while simultaneously presenting itself as a potential governing party at Westminster.
A changing national picture
However, the party’s local election gains should not be confused with evidence of continuously rising national support.
In September, ITV News reported that Reform had experienced a difficult summer. The party had surrendered its earlier polling lead, faced competition from Restore Britain and encountered scrutiny over donations and internal disagreements.
More recent YouGov polling reported by The Times on September 22 showed Labour on 23%, with Reform and the Conservatives both on 21%. The survey was conducted among 2,286 voters on September 20 and 21.
The poll also found that Reform’s 21% represented its lowest YouGov level since polling resumed after the general election.
That does not erase Reform’s local election achievements, but it does provide important context.
Local election performance and national voting intention are related but not identical measures of political support.
Local elections can involve different turnout patterns, candidate effects, local issues and tactical voting. A party can perform strongly in particular councils without necessarily achieving the same level of support across a future general election.
The importance of Nigel Farage
Farage remains central to Reform’s political identity.
A large YouGov study published in July found that 91% of current Reform voters had a favourable opinion of Farage. The study also found that immigration was the most commonly cited reason for supporting Reform, with 54% of Reform supporters naming trust in the party to manage immigration as one of the reasons that attracted them to the party.
The research also showed that Reform’s coalition is not politically uniform.
The party has attracted people who voted Reform in 2024, former Conservative voters and some former Labour voters.
Those groups have different political backgrounds and priorities.
For example, the YouGov study found that cost-of-living concerns were particularly important among Reform’s former Labour voters, while immigration remained a particularly prominent concern across the party’s wider coalition.
That creates both an opportunity and a challenge.
Farage can appeal to different groups through a broad anti-establishment message, but maintaining support from voters with different priorities requires the party to offer more than a single-issue campaign.
Money and organisation
Another factor behind Reform’s current political position is its financial capacity.
In September, Reform received two donations of £36 million each from cryptocurrency businessmen Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne, taking the combined amount to £72 million.
The donations prompted debate about the role of large political donations and calls from other parties for tighter controls. Harborne said he supported Reform because he believed its policies could attract investment and increase revenue for public services.
For Reform, significant financial resources could support campaigning, communications and local organisation.
But money also creates political scrutiny.
Large donations can become an issue in themselves, particularly for a party campaigning against established political institutions and presenting itself as an alternative to the existing political system.
Reform has therefore had to balance the benefits of greater financial resources with questions about transparency and political influence.
Local councils as a test of Reform’s programme
The next stage will be particularly important at council level.
Reform now has councillors who must make decisions about real budgets and services.
If those councils deliver visible improvements, the party can point to them as examples of its approach to government.
If councils experience internal disputes, financial problems or unpopular decisions, opponents can use those developments to challenge Reform’s claims about its ability to govern.
This is one reason Farage’s warning about internal discipline matters.
The party’s local representatives are no longer simply candidates campaigning against Labour or the Conservatives. They are now responsible for decisions affecting residents.
The performance of Reform-led councils could therefore become an important part of the party’s wider political reputation.
The next electoral test
Reform’s local government strategy will also depend on its ability to maintain support beyond the areas where it performed strongly in May.
The party has already demonstrated that it can win in both Conservative and Labour territory.
Its victories in Essex and Suffolk demonstrated its ability to take Conservative-held territory, while Sunderland demonstrated that it could make significant gains in a traditionally Labour-controlled city.
But the May results also contained limitations.
Reform did not win every target it contested. In Harlow, for example, the Conservatives won all 11 district council seats available, while Reform failed to take control of Bexley in London.
Those results illustrate why it is difficult to describe Reform’s performance simply as a nationwide takeover.
The party has demonstrated considerable electoral reach, but its support remains geographically uneven.
A crucial period for Farage
The political significance of Reform’s local election gains will ultimately depend on what happens next.
The party has secured control of important councils, built a larger network of elected representatives and gained practical experience of local government.
At the same time, recent polling indicates that its national support is not permanently fixed at the levels recorded during earlier stages of its rise. The September YouGov figures show Labour, Reform and the Conservatives separated by only a few points.
For Farage, the task is therefore not simply to celebrate previous victories.
He must demonstrate that Reform can convert electoral breakthroughs into effective local administration while maintaining a coalition of voters with different political backgrounds.
The party’s conference programme, its local council performance and its campaigning operation will all form part of that effort.
The phrase “huge boost” may therefore describe the political significance Reform attaches to its local successes, but the longer-term impact remains something that will have to be demonstrated.
What is already clear is that Reform UK has moved beyond being solely a Westminster protest movement. It now has substantial local-government responsibilities and a growing organisation on the ground.
The coming period will show whether those local victories become a durable part of Reform’s political structure or remain a particularly strong moment in the party’s rapidly changing electoral history.
